I just made a quick stats rundown of the last 25 challenges that had a 7.5+ first place finish. I computed medians, averages and standard deviation for 1st, 2nd and 3rd place showing. Here it is.
1st median : 7.656
average: 7.674 ± 0.149
2nd median: 7.220
average: 7.217 ± 0.243
3rd median: 7.078
average: 7.042 ± 0.247
Hope this gives you an idea if you'll place in the top 3. From this, the best I can hope for is 3rd place. Not bad.
Firstly you have too much time on your hands :-)
Secondly, looks like I may have a chance at 2nd :-)
-danny
Originally posted by Beagleboy:
I just made a quick stats rundown of the last 25 challenges that had a 7.5+ first place finish. I computed medians, averages and standard deviation for 1st, 2nd and 3rd place showing. Here it is.
1st median : 7.656
average: 7.674 ± 0.149
2nd median: 7.220
average: 7.217 ± 0.243
3rd median: 7.078
average: 7.042 ± 0.247
Hope this gives you an idea if you'll place in the top 3. From this, the best I can hope for is 3rd place. Not bad.
I just made a quick stats rundown of the last 25 challenges that had a 7.5+ first place finish. I computed medians, averages and standard deviation for 1st, 2nd and 3rd place showing. Here it is.
1st median : 7.656
average: 7.674 ± 0.149
2nd median: 7.220
average: 7.217 ± 0.243
3rd median: 7.078
average: 7.042 ± 0.247
Hope this gives you an idea if you'll place in the top 3. From this, the best I can hope for is 3rd place. Not bad.
Drat! my prediction methodology has been found out!
I just made a quick stats rundown of the last 25 challenges that had a 7.5+ first place finish. I computed medians, averages and standard deviation for 1st, 2nd and 3rd place showing. Here it is.
1st median : 7.656
average: 7.674 ± 0.149
2nd median: 7.220
average: 7.217 ± 0.243
3rd median: 7.078
average: 7.042 ± 0.247
Hope this gives you an idea if you'll place in the top 3. From this, the best I can hope for is 3rd place. Not bad.
Statistical analysis of the last 25 challenges only means something if the December Free Study will be statistically average.
It will not. It is different in two significant ways. One, it is a free study. Two, there are the December rules. Free study eliminates the perpetual "does not meet the challenge" complaint and December rules contribute to higher quality images.
It will be more like the fauna challenge that had 10 images finish at 7 or higher. Several challenges have had third place ribbons above 7.3 and this will be another one.
Expect a cluster of scores in the low to mid-7 range.
It will be more like the fauna challenge that had 10 images finish at 7 or higher. Several challenges have had third place ribbons above 7.3 and this will be another one.
Expect a cluster of scores in the low to mid-7 range.
Why? The fauna challenge was neither open edit nor a free study.
